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A model for the assessment of bluetongue virus serotype 1 persistence in Spain

Investigation article published in PLoS ONE

April 30th, 2020

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus of ruminants that has been circulating in Europe continuously for more than two decades and has become endemic in some countries such as Spain. Spain is ideal for BTV epidemiological studies since BTV outbreaks from different sources and serotypes have occurred continuously there since 2000; BTV-1 has been reported there from 2007 to 2017. Here we develop a model for BTV-1 endemic scenario to estimate the risk of an area becoming endemic, as well as to identify the most influential factors for BTV-1 persistence. We created abundance maps at 1-km2 spatial resolution for the main vectors in Spain, Culicoides imicola and Obsoletus and Pulicaris complexes, by combining environmental satellite data with occurrence models and a random forest machine learning algorithm. The endemic model included vector abundance and host-related variables (farm density). The three most relevant variables in the endemic model were the abundance of C. imicola and Obsoletus complex and density of goat farms (AUC 0.86); this model suggests that BTV-1 is more likely to become endemic in central and southwestern regions of Spain. It only requires host- and vector-related variables to identify areas at greater risk of becoming endemic for bluetongue. Our results highlight the importance of suitable Culicoides spp. prediction maps for bluetongue epidemiological studies and decision-making about control and eradication measures




Aguilar-Vega C., Fernandez-Carrion E., Lucientes J. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..




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A model for the assessment of bluetongue virus serotype 1 persistence in Spain

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A model for the assessment of bluetongue virus serotype 1 persistence in Spain


Participants:

Universidad ComplutenseServicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseDepartamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad de ZaragozaDepartamento de Patología Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad de Zaragoza (UNIZAR).

Universidad de ZaragozaInstituto Universitario de Investigación Mixto Agroalimentario de Aragón (IA2). Universidad de Zaragoza (UNIZAR).



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PLoS ONE
FACTOR YEAR Q
2.776 2018

NLMID: 101285081

PMID: 32353863

ISSN: 1932-6203



TITLE: A model for the assessment of bluetongue virus serotype 1 persistence in Spain


JOURNAL: PLoS ONE


NUMERACIÓN: 15(4):e0232534


AÑO: 2020


PUBLISHER: Public Library Science


AUTHORS: Aguilar-Vega C., Fernandez-Carrion E., Lucientes J. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..


VISAVET PARTICIPANTS


First
Cecilia Aguilar Vega
Last
José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez

DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.1371/journal.pone.0232534


CITE THIS PUBLICATION:

Aguilar-Vega C., Fernandez-Carrion E., Lucientes J. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM. A model for the assessment of bluetongue virus serotype 1 persistence in Spain. PLoS ONE. 15(4):e0232534. 2020. (A). ISSN: 1932-6203. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0232534


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