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A simulation model for the potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease in the Castile and Leon region of Spain

Investigation article published in Preventive Veterinary Medicine

August 1st, 2010

A spatial stochastic model was used to simulate the spread of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in the Castile-and-Leon (CyL) region of Spain. The model was fitted using information available on premises demographics and on assumptions for animal movements, indirect contacts, and airborne exposure. Control measures dictated by Spanish and European Union regulations constituted a reference strategy to which six alternative control strategies were compared. For the reference strategy, the median (95% PI) numbers of infected, depopulated, and quarantined premises were 141 (2-1099), 164 (4-1302), and 334 (31-2059), respectively. Depopulation and vaccination of premises within a radius of <1km and <3km, respectively, around infected premises significantly (p-value<0.001) decreased the number of infected premises, compared to the reference scenario. Results presented here will contribute to the revision, design, and implementation of contingency plans and programs for prevention and control of FMD epidemics in Spain. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved




Martinez-Lopez B., Perez AM. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..




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A simulation model for the potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease in the Castile and Leon region of Spain

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A simulation model for the potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease in the Castile and Leon region of Spain



Participants:

Universidad ComplutenseServicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseDepartamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

University of California-DavisUniversity of California-Davis (UCDAVIS).

Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET).







Preventive Veterinary Medicine
FACTOR YEAR Q
2.121 2010

NLMID: 8217463

PMID: 20579754

ISSN: 0167-5877



TITLE: A simulation model for the potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease in the Castile and Leon region of Spain


JOURNAL: Prev. Vet. Med.


NUMERACIÓN: 96(1-2):19-29


AÑO: 2010


PUBLISHER: Elsevier Science Publishers


AUTHORS: Martinez-Lopez B., Perez AM. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..


VISAVET PARTICIPANTS


José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.05.015


CITE THIS PUBLICATION:

Martinez-Lopez B., Perez AM. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM. A simulation model for the potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease in the Castile and Leon region of Spain. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 96(1-2):19-29. 2010. (A). ISSN: 0167-5877. DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.05.015


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