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Habitat suitability mapping and landscape connectivity analysis to predict African swine fever spread in wild boar populations: A focus on Northern Italy

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January 30th, 2025

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease affecting wild and domestic pigs, characterised by severe haemorrhagic symptoms and high mortality rates. Originally confined to Sub-Saharan Africa, ASF virus genotype II has spread to Europe since 2014, mainly affecting Eastern Europe, and progressing through wild boar migrations and human action. In January 2022, the first case of ASF, due to genotype II, was reported in North-western Italy, in a wild boar carcass. Thereafter, numerous positive wild boars were identified, indicating an expanding wild epidemic, severely threatening Italian pig farming and trade. This study focused on the mapping of the suitable habitats for wild boars and their potential dispersal corridors in Northern Italy, using species distribution models and landscape connectivity analysis. The resulting maps identified areas with higher likelihood of wild boar presence, highlighting their preferential pathways crossing Northern Italy. The distribution of ASF positive wild boars along the major corridors predicted by the model suggests the obtained maps as valuable support to decision-makers to improve ASF surveillance and carcass early detection, aiming for eradication. The applied framework can be easily replicated in other regions and countries




Faustini G., Soret M., Defossez A., Bosch J., Conte A. and Tran A.




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Habitat suitability mapping and landscape connectivity analysis to predict African swine fever spread in wild boar populations: A focus on Northern Italy

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Habitat suitability mapping and landscape connectivity analysis to predict African swine fever spread in wild boar populations: A focus on Northern Italy



Participants:

Department of Animal Medicine, Production and Health. Università degli Studi di Padova (UNIPD).

Centre INRAE Val-de-LoireCentre INRAE Val-de-Loire.

Université de MontpellierUniversité de Montpellier (UM1).

Institut des Sciences et Industries du Vivant et de L´environnement (AgroParisTech).

Centre de Cooperation International en Recherche Agronomique pour le DeveloppementCentre de Cooperation International en Recherche Agronomique pour le Developpement (CIRAD).

Universidad ComplutenseServicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseDepartamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell Abruzzo e del MoliseIstituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell Abruzzo e del Molise (IZSAM).

TerrOiko. Oikolab.







PLoS ONE
FACTOR YEAR Q
2.900 2023

NLMID: 101285081

PMID: 39883672

ISSN: 1932-6203



TITLE: Habitat suitability mapping and landscape connectivity analysis to predict African swine fever spread in wild boar populations: A focus on Northern Italy


JOURNAL: PLoS ONE


NUMERACIÓN: 20(1):e0317577


AÑO: 2025


PUBLISHER: PLOS


AUTHORS: Faustini G., Soret M., Defossez A., Bosch J., Conte A. and Tran A.


Jaime Bosch López

DOI: https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0317577


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