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Mapping changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of lumpy skin disease virus

Investigation article published in Transboundary and Emerging Diseases

September 26th, 2019

Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an infectious disease of cattle transmitted by arthropod vectors which results in substantial economic losses due to impact on production efficiency and profitability, and represents an emerging threat to international trade of livestock products and live animals. Since 2015, the disease has spread into the Northern Hemisphere including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and the Balkans. The rapid expansion of LSDV in those regions represented the emergence of the virus in more temperate regions than those in which LSDV traditionally occurred. The goal of this study was to assess the risk for further LSDV spread through the a) analysis of environmental factors conducive for LSDV, and b) estimate of the underlying LSDV risk, using a combination of ecological niche modeling and fine spatiotemporally explicit Bayesian hierarchical model on LSDV outbreak occurrence data. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the potential distribution of LSDV outbreaks for 2014-2016. That analysis resulted in a spatial representation of environmental limits where, if introduced, LSDV is expected to efficiently spread. The Bayesian space-time model incorporated both environmental factors and the changing spatiotemporal distribution of the disease to capture the dynamics of disease spread and predict areas in which there is an increased risk for LSDV occurrence. Variables related to the average temperature, precipitation, wind speed, as well as land cover and host densities were important drivers explaining the observed distribution of LSDV in both modeling approaches. Areas of elevated LSDV risks were identified mainly in Russia, Turkey, Serbia, and Bulgaria. Results suggest that, if current ecological and epidemiological conditions persist, further spread of LSDV in Eurasia may be expected. The results presented here advance our understanding of the ecological requirements of LSDV in temperate regions and may help in the design and implementation of prevention and surveillance strategies in the region. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved




Machado G., Korennoy FI., Alvarez J., Picasso C., Perez A. and VanderWaal K.




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Mapping changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of lumpy skin disease virus

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Mapping changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of lumpy skin disease virus

Participants:

North Carolina State UniversityDepartment of Population Health and Pathobiology. College of Veterinary Medicine. North Carolina State University (NCSU).

Federal Governmental Budgetary Institution - Federal Center for Animal HealthFederal Governmental Budgetary Institution - Federal Center for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH).

Universidad ComplutenseCentro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseDepartamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

University of MinnesotaDepartment of Veterinary Population Medicine. College of Veterinary Medicine. University of Minnesota (UMM).







Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
FACTOR YEAR Q
3.504 2018

NLMID: 101319538

PMID: 31127984

ISSN: 1865-1674



TITLE: Mapping changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of lumpy skin disease virus


JOURNAL: Transbound. Emerg. Dis.


NUMERACIÓN: 66(5):2045-2057


AÑO: 2019


PUBLISHER: Blackwell Verlag


AUTHORS: Machado G., Korennoy FI., Alvarez J., Picasso C., Perez A. and VanderWaal K.


VISAVET PARTICIPANTS


Julio Álvarez Sánchez

DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.1111/tbed.13253


CITE THIS PUBLICATION:

Machado G., Korennoy FI., Alvarez J., Picasso C., Perez A. and VanderWaal K. Mapping changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of lumpy skin disease virus. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases. 66(5):2045-2057. 2019. (A). ISSN: 1865-1674. DOI: 10.1111/tbed.13253