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Quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever introduction into Spain by legal import of swine products

Investigation article published in Research in Veterinary Science

October 1st, 2023

African swine fever (ASF) is currently threatening the global swine industry. Its unstoppable global spread poses a serious risk to Spain, one of the world`s leading producers. Over the past years, there has been an increased global burden of ASF not only in swine but also swine products. Unfortunately, many pigs are not diagnosed before slaughter and their products are used for human consumption. These ASF-contaminated products are only a source for new ASF outbreaks when they are consumed by domestic pigs or wild boar, which may happen either by swill feeding or landfill access. This study presents a quantitative stochastic risk assessment model for the introduction of ASF into Spain via the legal import of swine products, specifically pork and pork products. Entry assessment, exposure assessment, consequence assessment and risk estimation were carried out. The results suggest an annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain of 1.74 × 10−4, the highest risk being represented by Hungary, Portugal, and Poland. Monthly risk distribution is homogeneously distributed throughout the year. Illegal trade and pork product movement for own consumption (e.g., air and ship passenger luggage) have not been taken into account due to the lack of available, accredited data sources. This limitation may have influenced the model`s outcomes and, the risk of introduction might be higher than that estimated. Nevertheless, the results presented herein would contribute to allocating resources to areas at higher risk, improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain




Munoz-Perez C., Martinez-Lopez B., Gomez-Vazquez JP., Aguilar-Vega C., Bosch J., Ito S., Martinez-Aviles M. and Sanchez-Vizcaino F.




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Quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever introduction into Spain by legal import of swine products

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Quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever introduction into Spain by legal import of swine products



Participants:

Universidad ComplutenseServicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseDepartamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

University of California-DavisCenter for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance. School of Veterinary Medicine. University of California-Davis (UCDAVIS).

Consejo Superior de Investigaciones CientíficasConsejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC).

Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y AlimentariaCentro de Investigación en Sanidad Animal (CISA). Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA).



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Research in Veterinary Science
FACTOR YEAR Q
2.400 2022

NLMID: 401300

PMID: 37639803

ISSN: 0034-5288



TITLE: Quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever introduction into Spain by legal import of swine products


JOURNAL: Res Vet Sci


NUMERACIÓN: 163:104990


AÑO: 2023


PUBLISHER: Elsevier


AUTHORS: Munoz-Perez C., Martinez-Lopez B., Gomez-Vazquez JP., Aguilar-Vega C., Bosch J., Ito S., Martinez-Aviles M. and Sanchez-Vizcaino F.


4th
Cecilia Aguilar Vega
5th
Jaime Bosch López
7th
Marta Martínez Avilés

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rvsc.2023.104990


CITE THIS PUBLICATION:

Munoz-Perez C., Martinez-Lopez B., Gomez-Vazquez JP., Aguilar-Vega C., Bosch J., Ito S., Martinez-Aviles M. and Sanchez-Vizcaino F. Quantitative risk assessment of African swine fever introduction into Spain by legal import of swine products. Research in Veterinary Science. 163:104990. 2023. (A). ISSN: 0034-5288. DOI: 10.1016/j.rvsc.2023.104990


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