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A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within- and between-farm transmission of classical swine fever virus. I. General concepts and description of the model

Investigación publicada en Veterinary Microbiology

27 de enero de 2011

A new stochastic and spatial model was developed to evaluate the potential spread of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) within- and between-farms, and considering the specific farm-to-farm contact network. Within-farm transmission was simulated using a modified SI model. Between-farm transmission was assumed to occur by direct contacts (i.e. animal movement) and indirect contacts (i.e. local spread, vehicle and person contacts) and considering the spatial location of farms. Control measures dictated by the European legislation (i.e. depopulation of infected farms, movement restriction, zoning, surveillance, contact tracing) were also implemented into the model. Model experimentation was performed using real data from Segovia, one of the provinces with highest density of pigs in Spain, and results were presented using the mean, 95% probability intervals [95% PI] and risk maps. The estimated mean [95% PI] number of infected, quarantined and depopulated farms were 3 [1,17], 23 [0,76] and 115 [0,318], respectively. The duration of the epidemic was 63 [26,177] days and the most important way of transmission was associated with local spread (61.4% of the infections). Results were consistent with the spread of previous CSFV introductions into the study region. The model and results presented here may be useful for the decision making process and for the improvement of the prevention and control programmes for CSFV




Martinez-Lopez B., Ivorra B., Ramos AM. y Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..




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A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within- and between-farm transmission of classical swine fever virus. I. General concepts and description of the model

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A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within- and between-farm transmission of classical swine fever virus. I. General concepts and description of the model


Participantes:

Universidad ComplutenseServicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseDepartamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseFacultad de Ciencias Matemáticas. Universidad Complutense (UCM).







Veterinary Microbiology
FACTOR YEAR Q
3.327 2011

NLMID: 7705469

PMID: 20708351

ISSN: 0378-1135



TÍTULO: A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within- and between-farm transmission of classical swine fever virus. I. General concepts and description of the model


REVISTA: Vet. Microbiol.


NUMERACIÓN: 147(3-4):300-9


AÑO: 2011


EDITORIAL: Elsevier Science Publishers


AUTORES: Martinez-Lopez B., Ivorra B., Ramos AM. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..


PARTICIPANTES VISAVET


José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vetmic.2010.07.009


CITA ESTA PUBLICACIÓN:

Martinez-Lopez B., Ivorra B., Ramos AM. y Sanchez-Vizcaino JM. A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within- and between-farm transmission of classical swine fever virus. I. General concepts and description of the model. Veterinary Microbiology. 147(3-4):300-9. 2011. (A). ISSN: 0378-1135. DOI: 10.1016/j.vetmic.2010.07.009


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