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A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within and between farm transmission of classical swine fever virus: II Validation of the model

Investigation article published in Veterinary Microbiology

February 24th, 2012

A new, recently published, stochastic and spatial model for the evaluation of classical swine fever virus (CSFV) spread into Spain has been validated by using several methods. Internal validity, sensitivity analysis, validation using historical data, comparison with other models and experiments on data validity were used to evaluate the overall reliability and consistency of the model. More than 100 modifications in input data and parameters were evaluated. Outputs were obtained after 1000 iterations for each new scenario of the model. As a result, the model was shown to be consistent, being the probability of infection by local spread, the time from infectious to clinical signs state, the probability of detection based on clinical signs at day t after detection of the index case outside the control and surveillance zones and the maximum number of farms to be depopulated at day t the parameters that have more influence (>10% of change) on the magnitude and duration of the epidemic. The combination of a within- and between-farm spread model was also shown to give significantly different results than using a purely between-farm spread model. Methods and results presented here were intended to be useful to better understand and apply the model, to identify key parameters for which it will be critical to have good estimates and to provide better support for prevention and control of future CSFV outbreaks




Martinez-Lopez B., Ivorra B., Ngom D., Ramos AM. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..




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A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within and between farm transmission of classical swine fever virus: II Validation of the model

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A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within and between farm transmission of classical swine fever virus: II Validation of the model



Participants:

Universidad ComplutenseServicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseDepartamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseGrupo de Investigación ´Modelos Matemáticos en Ciencia y Tecnología: Desarrollo, Análisis, Simulación Numérica y Control´ (MOMAT). Facultad de Ciencias Matemáticas. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Mathematics Department. University of Ziguinchor (UASZ).

Laboratorio de Análisis Numéricos y de Informatica (LANI). Departamento de Formación e Investigación de Ciencias Aplicadas y Tecnología. Gaston Berger University (UGB).







Veterinary Microbiology
FACTOR YEAR Q
3.127 2012

NLMID: 7705469

PMID: 21899960

ISSN: 0378-1135



TITLE: A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within and between farm transmission of classical swine fever virus: II Validation of the model


JOURNAL: Vet. Microbiol.


NUMERACIÓN: 155: 21–32


AÑO: 2012


PUBLISHER: Elsevier Science Publishers


AUTHORS: Martinez-Lopez B., Ivorra B., Ngom D., Ramos AM. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..


VISAVET PARTICIPANTS


José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez

DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.vetmic.2011.08.008


CITE THIS PUBLICATION:

Martinez-Lopez B., Ivorra B., Ngom D., Ramos AM. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM. A novel spatial and stochastic model to evaluate the within and between farm transmission of classical swine fever virus: II Validation of the model. Veterinary Microbiology. 155: 21–32. 2012. (A). ISSN: 0378-1135. DOI: 10.1016/j.vetmic.2011.08.008


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