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An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain

Investigation article published in PLoS ONE

March 22nd, 2018

This work develops a methodology for estimating risk of wind-borne introduction of flying insects into a country, identifying areas and periods of high risk of vector-borne diseases incursion. This risk can be characterized by the role of suitable temperatures and wind currents in small insects` survival and movements, respectively. The model predicts the number density of introduced insects over space and time based on three processes: the advection due to wind currents, the deposition on the ground and the survival due to climatic conditions. Spanish livestock has suffered many bluetongue outbreaks since 2004 and numerous experts point to Culicoides transported by wind from affected areas in North Africa as a possible cause. This work implements numerical experiments simulating the introduction of Culicoides in 2004. The model identified southern and eastern Spain, particularly between June and November, as being at greatest risk of wind-borne Culicoides introduction, which matches field data on bluetongue outbreaks in Spain this year. This validation suggests that this model may be useful for predicting introduction of airborne pathogens of significance to animal productivity




Fernandez-Carrion E., Ivorra B., Ramos AM., Martinez-Lopez B., Aguilar-Vega C. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..




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An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain

See it on NLM PubMed
An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain



Participants:

Universidad ComplutenseServicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseDepartamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseGrupo de Investigación ´Modelos Matemáticos en Ciencia y Tecnología: Desarrollo, Análisis, Simulación Numérica y Control´ (MOMAT). Facultad de Ciencias Matemáticas. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

University of California-DavisUniversity of California-Davis (UCDAVIS).



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- Una herramienta predice la introducción de mosquitos procedentes del norte de África - ucm.es







PLoS ONE
FACTOR YEAR Q
2.776 2018

NLMID: 101285081

PMID: 29566088

ISSN: 1932-6203



TITLE: An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain


JOURNAL: PLoS ONE


NUMERACIÓN: 13(3):e0194573


AÑO: 2018


PUBLISHER: Public Library Science


AUTHORS: Fernandez-Carrion E., Ivorra B., Ramos AM., Martinez-Lopez B., Aguilar-Vega C. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..


VISAVET PARTICIPANTS


5th
Cecilia Aguilar Vega
Last
José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194573


CITE THIS PUBLICATION:

Fernandez-Carrion E., Ivorra B., Ramos AM., Martinez-Lopez B., Aguilar-Vega C. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM. An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain. PLoS ONE. 13(3):e0194573. 2018. (A). ISSN: 1932-6203. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0194573


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