Home \ Research \ Scientific publications \


Evaluation of the risk of classical swine fever (CSF) spread from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs by using the spatial stochastic disease spread model Be-FAST: The example of Bulgaria

Investigation article published in Veterinary Microbiology

July 26th, 2013

The study presented here is one of the very first aimed at exploring the potential spread of classical swine fever (CSF) from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs. Specifically, we used a spatial stochastic spread model, called Be-FAST, to evaluate the potential spread of CSF virus (CSFV) in Bulgaria, which holds a large number of backyards (96% of the total number of pig farms) and is one of the very few countries for which backyard pigs and farm counts are available. The model revealed that, despite backyard pigs being very likely to become infected, infections from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs were rare. In general, the magnitude and duration of the CSF simulated epidemics were small, with a median [95% PI] number of infected farms per epidemic of 1 [1,4] and a median [95% PI] duration of the epidemic of 44 [17,101] days. CSFV transmission occurs primarily (81.16%) due to indirect contacts (i.e. vehicles, people and local spread) whereas detection of infected premises was mainly (69%) associated with the observation of clinical signs on farm rather than with implementation of tracing or zoning. Methods and results of this study may support the implementation of risk-based strategies more cost-effectively to prevent, control and, ultimately, eradicate CSF from Bulgaria. The model may also be easily adapted to other countries in which the backyard system is predominant. It can also be used to simulate other similar diseases such as African swine fever




Martinez-Lopez B., Ivorra B., Ramos AM., Fernandez-Carrion E., Alexandrov T. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..




See this article
Evaluation of the risk of classical swine fever (CSF) spread from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs by using the spatial stochastic disease spread model Be-FAST: The example of Bulgaria

See it on NLM PubMed
Evaluation of the risk of classical swine fever (CSF) spread from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs by using the spatial stochastic disease spread model Be-FAST: The example of Bulgaria


Participants:

Universidad ComplutenseServicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseFacultad de Ciencias Matemáticas. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Bulgarian Food Safety AgencyBulgarian Food Safety Agency (BFSA).

Universidad ComplutenseDepartamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Gobierno de Castilla-La ManchaInstituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos (IREC). Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC). Universidad de Castilla La Mancha (UCLM). Gobierno de Castilla-La Mancha (JCCM).







Veterinary Microbiology
FACTOR YEAR Q
2.726 2013

NLMID: 7705469

PMID: 23465838

ISSN: 0378-1135



TITLE: Evaluation of the risk of classical swine fever (CSF) spread from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs by using the spatial stochastic disease spread model Be-FAST: The example of Bulgaria


JOURNAL: Vet. Microbiol.


NUMERACIÓN: 165(1-2):79-85


AÑO: 2013


PUBLISHER: Elsevier Science Publishers


AUTHORS: Martinez-Lopez B., Ivorra B., Ramos AM., Fernandez-Carrion E., Alexandrov T. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..


VISAVET PARTICIPANTS


José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez

DOI: https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.vetmic.2013.01.045


CITE THIS PUBLICATION:

Martinez-Lopez B., Ivorra B., Ramos AM., Fernandez-Carrion E., Alexandrov T. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM. Evaluation of the risk of classical swine fever (CSF) spread from backyard pigs to other domestic pigs by using the spatial stochastic disease spread model Be-FAST: The example of Bulgaria. Veterinary Microbiology. 165(1-2):79-85. 2013. (P). ISSN: 0378-1135. DOI: 10.1016/j.vetmic.2013.01.045


UNITS: