Poster communication in 13th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics

August 20^th, 2012

Mur L., Martinez-Lopez B. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM.

The spread of African swine fever (ASF) without control in Russian Federation (RF) has increased the concerns about the potential introduction of ASF into EU. As imports of pigs and their products are banned since the notification of ASF in RF, the role of illegal imports, fomites or wild boars are of chief importance for potential ASF introduction. The study here was aimed to estimate the relative risk for ASF introduction into the EU through three transport-associated fomites (TAF) which were classified as (1) livestock trucks
returning from affected areas; (2) waste from boats; and (3) waste from planes. A novel semi-quantitative model based on a knowledge driven approach was used for this purpose. Several parameters were selected as proxies for each pathway and standardized into six risk categories. The weighted combination of these proxies, which weights were obtained in an expert opinion elicitation, produced a final estimator for each TAF pathway and for each EU country. An extensive sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact that changes on those weights have in the model outcome. Results of the model indicate that the overall risk for ASF introduction through TAF pathways in EU is low, although some countries concentrate high levels of risk, being the returning trucks the TAF that posed the highest risk. The countries at highest risk in each TAF pathway were Poland and Lithuania for returning trucks, Denmark and Spain for waste
form boats and, Germany, UK and France for waste from planes. The model proposed here provides simple and easy to interpret results allowing the identification of the most critical TAF for each country and the countries that concentrate the highest relative risk for ASF introduction. Methods presented are particularly useful when data is scarce and may be useful for developing target surveillance strategies to reduce the risk of ASF introduction into EU

	Servicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).
	Departamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).