Risk of African swine fever introduction into the European Union through illegal importation of pork and products
Conference in 13th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics
August 20th, 2012
Costard S., Jones BA., Martinez-Lopez B., Mur L., de la Torre A., Martinez-Aviles M., Sanchez-Vizcaino F., Sanchez-Vizcaino JM., Pfeiffer DU. and Wieland B.
Diseases such as African swine fever (ASF), classical swine fever or foot-and-mouth disease have severe socio-economic impacts when introduced into new regions. The history of disease incursions in the European Union (EU) suggests that initial outbreaks were often due to illegal importation of meat and meat products, and that the EU’s surveillance strategy would benefit from decision-support tools for evaluating the risk of disease introduction through illegal imports. Due to the difficulty in quantifying illegal movements of animal products however, few studies have been conducted on this topic. We present an innovative risk assessment framework for disease introduction into the EU through illegal importation of meat products,
using ASF as an example. The semi-quantitative model considered proxy indicators (PI), i.e. factors likely to influence the release of contaminated smuggled pork and pork products, and the exposure of the domestic pig population. PIs were weighted using expert opinion so as to reflect their influence on the risk of release or exposure. Suitable datasets available in the public domain or information easily obtained for all EU member states (MS) were identified for each PI, and their values across MS were categorized into scores from 0 to 5. Release and exposure risk scores were obtained by weighted linear combination of the PIs’ scores and weights, and then converted into qualitative risk categories. The model identified differences in risk levels for EU MS with five MS at high or moderate risk of ASF release, two MS at high risk of exposure and twelve MS at moderate risk of exposure. The results highlight regions where illegal import is of particular concern, and might be useful to inform surveillance systems
 | Servicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM). |
| Departamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM). |
 | Centro de Investigación en Sanidad Animal (CISA). Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA). |
Link to 13th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics
