Investigación publicada en Transboundary and Emerging Diseases

28 de febrero de 2023

Bushpigs (Potamochoerus larvatus) play a major role in the socio-ecosystem of Madagascar, particularly in rural areas. They are largely hunted by rural populations as a major source of income and protein. They can also represent a potential source of pathogens for domestic animals and people. For example, it is hypothesized that bushpigs might compromise African swine fever (ASF) eradication programs by sporadically transmitting the virus to domestic pigs. However, available knowledge on the distribution of bushpigs in Madagascar is limited. In this study, we estimated the distribution of bushpigs on Madagascar using a species distribution model (SDM). We retrieved 206 sightings of bushpigs in Madagascar during 1990–2016 and predicted the distribution by using 37 climatic, geographic, and agricultural/human variables related to the presence of bushpigs and running a presence-background maximum entropy SDM. Our model identified three main areas with a high suitability for bushpigs: in the north, central-western, and east of the island (AUC = 0.84). The main contributors to the model were the vegetation index (51.3%), percentage of land covered by trees (17.6%), and annual averaged monthly precipitation (12.6%). In addition, we identified areas in central Madagascar with a high density of domestic pigs and a high suitability score for bushpigs. These results may help to identify bushpig areas at the interface with domestic pigs to assess the risk of pathogen transmission and to design ecological assessments, wildlife management studies, or targeted surveillance and research studies related to many bushpig-borne pathogens, such as ASF, which is an endemic problem in the country, as well as zoonotic diseases such as cysticercosis and hepatitis E. Our approach could also be extrapolated to other species of wild swine in other countries

Diaz-Cao JM., Grossmann N., Goodman SM., Bosch J., Guis H., Rasamoelina M., Rakotoarivony R., Jori F. y Martinez-Lopez B.

A Maximum Entropy Species Distribution Model to Estimate the Distribution of Bushpigs on Madagascar and Its Implications for African Swine Fever

	Department of Medicine & Epidemiology. School of Veterinary Medicine. University of California-Davis (UCDAVIS).
	Departamento de Patoloxia Animal. Facultade de Veterinaria de Lugo. Universidad de Santiago de Compostela (USC).
	Field Museum of Natural History.
	Association Vahatra.
	Servicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).
	Departamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).
	Epidemiology and Clinical Research. Institut Pasteur de Madagascar (IPM).
	Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques et Ecosystèmes (ASTRE).
	Université de Montpellier (UM1).
	CIRAD. Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA).
	FOFIFA-DRZVP.
	Department of Zoology & Entomology. Faculty of Veterinary Science. University of Pretoria (UP).