Mapping changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of lumpy skin disease virus
Artículo de investigación publicado en Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
26 de septiembre de 2019
Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is an infectious disease of cattle transmitted by arthropod vectors which results in substantial economic losses due to impact on production efficiency and profitability, and represents an emerging threat to international trade of livestock products and live animals. Since 2015, the disease has spread into the Northern Hemisphere including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and the Balkans. The rapid expansion of LSDV in those regions represented the emergence of the virus in more temperate regions than those in which LSDV traditionally occurred. The goal of this study was to assess the risk for further LSDV spread through the a) analysis of environmental factors conducive for LSDV, and b) estimate of the underlying LSDV risk, using a combination of ecological niche modeling and fine spatiotemporally explicit Bayesian hierarchical model on LSDV outbreak occurrence data. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the potential distribution of LSDV outbreaks for 2014-2016. That analysis resulted in a spatial representation of environmental limits where, if introduced, LSDV is expected to efficiently spread. The Bayesian space-time model incorporated both environmental factors and the changing spatiotemporal distribution of the disease to capture the dynamics of disease spread and predict areas in which there is an increased risk for LSDV occurrence. Variables related to the average temperature, precipitation, wind speed, as well as land cover and host densities were important drivers explaining the observed distribution of LSDV in both modeling approaches. Areas of elevated LSDV risks were identified mainly in Russia, Turkey, Serbia, and Bulgaria. Results suggest that, if current ecological and epidemiological conditions persist, further spread of LSDV in Eurasia may be expected. The results presented here advance our understanding of the ecological requirements of LSDV in temperate regions and may help in the design and implementation of prevention and surveillance strategies in the region. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved
Machado G., Korennoy FI., Alvarez J., Picasso C., Perez AM. y VanderWaal K.
 | Department of Population Health and Pathobiology. College of Veterinary Medicine. North Carolina State University (NCSU). |
 | Federal Governmental Budgetary Institution - Federal Center for Animal Health (FGBI ARRIAH). |
 | Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM). |
| Departamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM). |
 | Department of Veterinary Population Medicine. College of Veterinary Medicine. University of Minnesota (UMM). |
