Poster communication in 1st Conference on Spatial Statistics 2011

March 23^rd, 2011

Iglesias I., Sanchez-Vizcaino JM., Munoz MJ., Martinez-Aviles M. and de la Torre A.

HPAI virus has caused significant economic losses in the poultry industry. Backyard and outdoor poultry farms (BOPF) can play an important role in the spread of the disease. A spatio-temporal model has been developed to identify areas and periods at higher risk of HPAI spread in BOPF and applied on a Spanish region. Six risk factors were considered: Census, density, biosecurity, species susceptibility, proximity to risk wetlands and virus survival. A risk map was generated adding each risk factor as a spatial layer and a spatial-temporal analysis was conducted using
scan statistics. Six clusters of spread risk of HPAI were identified in December and January. Despite the simplicity of
the model, this system allows to focus the surveillance efforts in the highest risk areas and species. Thereby it could
improve the efficiency of surveillance and control systems in terms of cost/benefit ratio

	Servicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).
	Departamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).
	Centro de Investigación en Sanidad Animal (CISA). Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA). Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación.