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Spatio-temporal model of avian influenza spread risk

Poster communication in 1st Conference on Spatial Statistics 2011

March 23rd, 2011

Iglesias I., Sanchez-Vizcaino JM., Munoz MJ., Martinez-Aviles M. and de la Torre A.

HPAI virus has caused significant economic losses in the poultry industry. Backyard and outdoor poultry farms (BOPF) can play an important role in the spread of the disease. A spatio-temporal model has been developed to identify areas and periods at higher risk of HPAI spread in BOPF and applied on a Spanish region. Six risk factors were considered: Census, density, biosecurity, species susceptibility, proximity to risk wetlands and virus survival. A risk map was generated adding each risk factor as a spatial layer and a spatial-temporal analysis was conducted using
scan statistics. Six clusters of spread risk of HPAI were identified in December and January. Despite the simplicity of
the model, this system allows to focus the surveillance efforts in the highest risk areas and species. Thereby it could
improve the efficiency of surveillance and control systems in terms of cost/benefit ratio




Participants:

Universidad ComplutenseServicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseDepartamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Centro de Investigación en Sanidad Animal (CISA). Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA). Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación.


Link to 1st Conference on Spatial Statistics 2011





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1st Conference on Spatial Statistics 2011


March 23rd-25th, 2011
Enschede
The Netherlands

TITLE: Spatio-temporal model of avian influenza spread risk


TYPE: Poster communication


AUTHORS: Iglesias I., Sanchez-Vizcaino JM., Munoz MJ., Martinez-Aviles M. and de la Torre A.


VISAVET PARTICIPANTS


2nd
José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez
4th
Marta Martínez Avilés

DATE: March 23rd, 2011


CITE THIS COMMUNICATION:

Iglesias I., Sanchez-Vizcaino JM., Munoz MJ., Martinez-Aviles M. and de la Torre A. Spatio-temporal model of avian influenza spread risk. 1st Conference on Spatial Statistics 2011, ELSEVIER, Enschede, The Netherlands, March 23rd, 2011. (Poster communication)


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