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An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain


22 de marzo de 2018

Artículo de investigación publicado en PLoS ONE


This work develops a methodology for estimating risk of wind-borne introduction of flying insects into a country, identifying areas and periods of high risk of vector-borne diseases incursion. This risk can be characterized by the role of suitable temperatures and wind currents in small insects` survival and movements, respectively. The model predicts the number density of introduced insects over space and time based on three processes: the advection due to wind currents, the deposition on the ground and the survival due to climatic conditions. Spanish livestock has suffered many bluetongue outbreaks since 2004 and numerous experts point to Culicoides transported by wind from affected areas in North Africa as a possible cause. This work implements numerical experiments simulating the introduction of Culicoides in 2004. The model identified southern and eastern Spain, particularly between June and November, as being at greatest risk of wind-borne Culicoides introduction, which matches field data on bluetongue outbreaks in Spain this year. This validation suggests that this model may be useful for predicting introduction of airborne pathogens of significance to animal productivity




Fernandez-Carrion E., Ivorra B., Ramos AM., Martinez-Lopez B., Aguilar-Vega C. y Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..




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An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain

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An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain

Participantes:

Universidad ComplutenseServicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseDepartamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseGrupo de Investigación ´Modelos Matemáticos en Ciencia y Tecnología: Desarrollo, Análisis, Simulación Numérica y Control´ (MOMAT). Facultad de Ciencias Matemáticas. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

University of California-DavisCenter for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveilance (CADMS). University of California-Davis (UCDAVIS).







PLoS ONE
FACTOR YEAR Q
2.806 2016

NLMID: 101285081

PMID: 29566088

ISSN: 1932-6203



TÍTULO: An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain


REVISTA: PLoS ONE


NUMERACIÓN: 13(3):e0194573


AÑO: 2018


EDITORIAL: Public Library Science


AUTORES: Fernandez-Carrion E., Ivorra B., Ramos AM., Martinez-Lopez B., Aguilar-Vega C. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..


PARTICIPANTES VISAVET


First
Eduardo Fernández Carrión
5th
Cecilia Aguilar Vega
Last
José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194573


CITA ESTA PUBLICACIÓN:

Fernandez-Carrion E., Ivorra B., Ramos AM., Martinez-Lopez B., Aguilar-Vega C. y Sanchez-Vizcaino JM. An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain. PLoS ONE. 13(3):e0194573. 2018. (A). ISSN: 1932-6203. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0194573


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