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Comparative assessment of analytical approaches to quantify the risk for introduction of rare animal diseases: the example of Avian Influenza in Spain

Risk Analysis publica este artículo de investigación

1 de agosto de 2012

Trade of animals and animal products imposes an uncertain and variable risk for exotic animal diseases introduction into importing countries. Risk analysis provides importing countries with an objective, transparent, and internationally accepted method for assessing that risk. Over the last decades, European Union countries have conducted probabilistic risk assessments quite frequently to quantify the risk for rare animal diseases introduction into their territories. Most probabilistic animal health risk assessments have been typically classified into one-level and multilevel binomial models. One-level models are more simple than multilevel models because they assume that animals or products originate from one single population. However, it is unknown whether such simplification may result in substantially different results compared to those obtained through the use of multilevel models. Here, data used on a probabilistic multilevel binomial model formulated to assess the risk for highly pathogenic avian influenza introduction into Spain were reanalyzed using a one-level binomial model and their outcomes were compared. An alternative ordinal model is also proposed here, which makes use of simpler assumptions and less information compared to those required by traditional one-level and multilevel approaches. Results suggest that, at least under certain circumstances, results of the one-level and ordinal approaches are similar to those obtained using multilevel models. Consequently, we argue that, when data are insufficient to run traditional probabilistic models, the ordinal approach presented here may be a suitable alternative to rank exporting countries in terms of the risk that they impose for the spread of rare animal diseases into disease-free countries




Sanchez-Vizcaino F., Perez AM., Martinez-Lopez B. y Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..




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Comparative assessment of analytical approaches to quantify the risk for introduction of rare animal diseases: the example of Avian Influenza in Spain

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Comparative assessment of analytical approaches to quantify the risk for introduction of rare animal diseases: the example of Avian Influenza in Spain


Participantes:

Universidad ComplutenseServicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseDepartamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

University of California-DavisUniversity of California-Davis (UCDAVIS).

Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET).







Risk Analysis
FACTOR YEAR Q
2.278 2012

NLMID: 8109978

PMID: 22150558

ISSN: 0272-4332



TÍTULO: Comparative assessment of analytical approaches to quantify the risk for introduction of rare animal diseases: the example of Avian Influenza in Spain


REVISTA: Risk Anal.


NUMERACIÓN: 32(8):1433-40


AÑO: 2012


EDITORIAL: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, inc


AUTORES: Sanchez-Vizcaino F., Perez AM., Martinez-Lopez B. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..


PARTICIPANTES VISAVET


José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01744.x...


CITA ESTA PUBLICACIÓN:

Sanchez-Vizcaino F., Perez AM., Martinez-Lopez B. y Sanchez-Vizcaino JM. Comparative assessment of analytical approaches to quantify the risk for introduction of rare animal diseases: the example of Avian Influenza in Spain. Risk Analysis. 32(8):1433-40. 2012. (A). ISSN: 0272-4332. DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01744.x


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