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Implementation and validation of an economic module in the Be-FAST model to predict costs generated by livestock disease epidemics: Application to classical swine fever epidemics in Spain

Investigación publicada en Preventive Veterinary Medicine

1 de abril de 2016

Be-FAST is a computer program based on a time-spatial stochastic spread mathematical model for studying the transmission of infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. The present work describes a new module integrated into Be-FAST to model the economic consequences of the spreading of classical swine fever (CSF) and other infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. CSF is financially one of the most damaging diseases in the swine industry worldwide. Specifically in Spain, the economic costs in the two last CSF epidemics (1997 and 2001) reached jointly more than 108 million euros. The present analysis suggests that severe CSF epidemics are associated with significant economic costs, approximately 80% of which are related to animal culling. Direct costs associated with control measures are strongly associated with the number of infected farms, while indirect costs are more strongly associated with epidemic duration. The economic model has been validated with economic information around the last outbreaks in Spain. These results suggest that our economic module may be useful for analysing and predicting economic consequences of livestock disease epidemics




Fernandez-Carrion E., Ivorra B., Martinez-Lopez B., Ramos AM. y Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..




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Implementation and validation of an economic module in the Be-FAST model to predict costs generated by livestock disease epidemics: Application to classical swine fever epidemics in Spain

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Implementation and validation of an economic module in the Be-FAST model to predict costs generated by livestock disease epidemics: Application to classical swine fever epidemics in Spain


Participantes:

Universidad ComplutenseServicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseDepartamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseGrupo de Investigación ´Modelos Matemáticos en Ciencia y Tecnología: Desarrollo, Análisis, Simulación Numérica y Control´ (MOMAT). Facultad de Ciencias Matemáticas. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

University of California-DavisSchool of Veterinary Medicine. University of California-Davis (UCDAVIS).

University of California-DavisUniversity of California-Davis (UCDAVIS).







Preventive Veterinary Medicine
FACTOR YEAR Q
1.987 2016

NLMID: 8217463

PMID: 26875754

ISSN: 0167-5877



TÍTULO: Implementation and validation of an economic module in the Be-FAST model to predict costs generated by livestock disease epidemics: Application to classical swine fever epidemics in Spain


REVISTA: Prev. Vet. Med.


NUMERACIÓN: 126:66-73


AÑO: 2016


EDITORIAL: Elsevier Science Publishers


AUTORES: Fernandez-Carrion E., Ivorra B., Martinez-Lopez B., Ramos AM. and Sanchez-Vizcaino JM..


PARTICIPANTES VISAVET


José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.01.015


CITA ESTA PUBLICACIÓN:

Fernandez-Carrion E., Ivorra B., Martinez-Lopez B., Ramos AM. y Sanchez-Vizcaino JM. Implementation and validation of an economic module in the Be-FAST model to predict costs generated by livestock disease epidemics: Application to classical swine fever epidemics in Spain. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 126:66-73. 2016. (A). ISSN: 0167-5877. DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2016.01.015


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