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Transport-associated fomites: estimation of the potential risk for African swine fever introduction into European Union

Poster presentado en 13th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics

20 de agosto de 2012

Mur L., Martinez-Lopez B. y Sanchez-Vizcaino JM.

The spread of African swine fever (ASF) without control in Russian Federation (RF) has increased the concerns about the potential introduction of ASF into EU. As imports of pigs and their products are banned since the notification of ASF in RF, the role of illegal imports, fomites or wild boars are of chief importance for potential ASF introduction. The study here was aimed to estimate the relative risk for ASF introduction into the EU through three transport-associated fomites (TAF) which were classified as (1) livestock trucks
returning from affected areas; (2) waste from boats; and (3) waste from planes. A novel semi-quantitative model based on a knowledge driven approach was used for this purpose. Several parameters were selected as proxies for each pathway and standardized into six risk categories. The weighted combination of these proxies, which weights were obtained in an expert opinion elicitation, produced a final estimator for each TAF pathway and for each EU country. An extensive sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact that changes on those weights have in the model outcome. Results of the model indicate that the overall risk for ASF introduction through TAF pathways in EU is low, although some countries concentrate high levels of risk, being the returning trucks the TAF that posed the highest risk. The countries at highest risk in each TAF pathway were Poland and Lithuania for returning trucks, Denmark and Spain for waste
form boats and, Germany, UK and France for waste from planes. The model proposed here provides simple and easy to interpret results allowing the identification of the most critical TAF for each country and the countries that concentrate the highest relative risk for ASF introduction. Methods presented are particularly useful when data is scarce and may be useful for developing target surveillance strategies to reduce the risk of ASF introduction into EU





Participantes:

Universidad ComplutenseServicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseDepartamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).


Enlace a 13th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics





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13th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics


20-24 agosto de 2012
Maastrich
Países Bajos

TÍTULO: Transport-associated fomites: estimation of the potential risk for African swine fever introduction into European Union


TIPO: Comunicación en póster


AUTORES: Mur L., Martinez-Lopez B. y Sanchez-Vizcaino JM.


PARTICIPANTES VISAVET


José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez

FECHA: 20 de agosto de 2012



CITA ESTA COMUNICACIÓN:

Mur L., Martinez-Lopez B. y Sanchez-Vizcaino JM. Transport-associated fomites: estimation of the potential risk for African swine fever introduction into European Union. 13th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Maastrich, Países Bajos, 20 de agosto de 2012. (Comunicación en póster)


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