A Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for the interactions between domestic and wild ungulates for tuberculosis occurrence in South Central Spain
Oral communication in 13th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics
August 23rd, 2012
Rodriguez-Prieto V., Martinez-Lopez B., Barasona JA., Acevedo P., Romero B., Rodriguez-Campos S., Gortazar C., Sanchez-Vizcaino JM. and Vicente J.
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis. Despite its eradication is a priority for the European authorities, bTB remains prevalent in many countries, causing significant economic losses. The identification of epidemiological factors contributing to TB transmission is crucial to more cost-effectively allocate control measures and, ultimately, achieve bTB eradication. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and extent of the association between TB distribution and a list of potential risk factors regarding cattle, wild ungulates and environmental aspects in Ciudad Real, one of the Spanish provinces with the highest TB herd prevalence. We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence per municipality in 2007 by using predictors from the previous year and accounting for overdispersion and spatial autocorrelation. The risk factors (median OR) for TB occurrence identified in the final model were: incident cattle farms (1.83); number of years of veterinary inspection in hunting events (1.73); prevalence in wild boar (1.94); number of sampled cattle (1.85); bTBinfected cattle farms in 2006 (1.94); prevalence in red deer (1.69); beef farms (1.47); and bullfighting cattle farms (1.15). The spatial distribution of these factors together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface (WLI) may explain why TB is transmitted between both, contributing to the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary actions should be allocated towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the WLI seems to critically hamper the definitive bTB eradication success
 | Servicio de Micobacterias (MYC). Servicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM). |
| Departamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM). |
Link to 13th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics
