Inicio \ Divulgación \


Combination and comparison of two spread models of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a region of Spain

Comunicación presentada en 13th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics

20 de agosto de 2012

Iglesias I., de la Torre A., Munoz MJ., Martinez-Aviles M. y Sanchez-Vizcaino JM.

Since 2003 HPAI has had devastating consequences for poultry affecting ~400 million domestic birds and causing ~$20 billion economic losses. Early detection of HPAI cases helps the application of control measures mitigating the impact of the disease. Models are an efficient way to obtain early detection enabling the simulation of epidemics. Until 2006 Spain was free of HPAI, however in the last 5 years 2 cases of HPAI were notified. Because Spanish industrial poultry sector ranked 3erd in Europe, the spread of HPAI would
have devastating consequences on the country. Consequently a better knowledge of the dynamic of the spread of HPAI in Spain is needed. A comparison of two spatial spread models is the solution proposed to
investigate the variation of HPAI risk in each zone, and the adequacy of using either in control plans. Model I was a deterministic spatial model based on risk factors compiled by multicriteria decision. Model II was a stochastic spatial simulation model carried out using InterSpread Plus. Comparing results of both models in each farm showed a significant correlation (Spearman coef. ρ=0.825, P=0.0). Results were classified into quartiles of risk (Very High, High, Medium and Low) and compared. Bivariate analysis shows a significant
association (P=0.0), which was more significante in quartiles ‘Very high’ and ‘Low’. The consistency of results suggests appropriate assumptions in the introduction of parameters in each model. Similar risk farm classification in Very high and Low risk quartiles show that decisions to prioriced or discard control areas, according to risk estimated, would have been similar using either model. These areas identified could be selectively targeted as part of a surveillance program aimed at early detection, which could contribute to improved the control of HPAI.This work was financially supported by FAU2008-0O1-CO2-01




Participantes:

Universidad ComplutenseServicio de Inmunología Viral y Medicina Preventiva (SUAT). Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET). Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Universidad ComplutenseDepartamento de Sanidad Animal. Facultad de Veterinaria. Universidad Complutense (UCM).

Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y AlimentariaCentro de Investigación en Sanidad Animal (CISA). Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA).


Enlace a 13th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics





publiDB

13th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics


20-24 agosto de 2012
Maastrich
Países Bajos

TÍTULO: Combination and comparison of two spread models of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a region of Spain


TIPO: Comunicación en póster


AUTORES: Iglesias I., de la Torre A., Munoz MJ., Martinez-Aviles M. y Sanchez-Vizcaino JM.


PARTICIPANTES VISAVET


4th
Marta Martínez Avilés
Last
José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodríguez

FECHA: 20 de agosto de 2012



CITA ESTA COMUNICACIÓN:

Iglesias I., de la Torre A., Munoz MJ., Martinez-Aviles M. y Sanchez-Vizcaino JM. Combination and comparison of two spread models of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a region of Spain. 13th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Maastrich, Países Bajos, 20 de agosto de 2012. (Comunicación en póster)


SERVICIOS: